San José State University
Department of Economics

applet-magic.com
Thayer Watkins
Silicon Valley
& Tornado Alley
USA

Estimates of Personal Risks

Below are estimates of personal risks of deaths from various activities or causes. The risk figures are in expected number of deaths per year from a population of one million. The estimates are not necessary accurate but they give a rough idea of the relative magnitudes of the various risks.

ActivityExpected deaths
per million persons
per year
Voluntary Activities
Motorcycling20,000
Smoking
(20 cigarets per day)
5,000
Racing Cars1200
Rock Climbing1000
Canoeing400
Pregnancy230
Driving Cars170
Skiing170
Drinking Wine
(one bottle per day)
75
Playing Football40
Eating Peanut Butter*
(4 tbsp per day)
40
Power Boating30
Taking Birth Control Pills20
Drinking Beer
(one bottle per day)
20
Swimming19-30
Bicycling10
Drinking Milk
(one pint per day)
10
Traveling by Aircraft9
Eating Charcoal Broiled
Steak (0.5 lb per week)
0.4
Involuntary Activities
Influenza200
Leukemia80
From Falling70-90
Being Runover
by Road Vehicle (UK)
60
Being Runover
by Road Vehicle (US)
50
From Home Accidents12
Floods (US)2.2
Tornadoes
(US Midwest)
2.2
Earthquakes
(California)
1.7
Storms (US)0.8
Hurricanes0.4
Venomous Bites0.2
Lightning (UK)0.1
Falling Aircraft (US)0.1
Nuclear Power Plant0.1
Flooding (Holland)0.1
Petrol & Chemical
Transport
0.02-0.05
Falling Meteor0.00006
*--Due to Aflatoxin, a carcinogen

Source: Bernard L. Oser, "Benefit/Risk: Whose? What? How Much?" Food Technology, 1979.


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